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Wednesday, February 14, 2024

Unraveling the Future - Forecast 2024




With a new year upon us, a burning question emerges: what surprises does the dynamic telecom industry hold for 2024? In this month’s edition of Tarifica’s Data Dive, our industry-leading experts share their forecast, based on their years of collective experience and robust data from Tarifica’s Telecom Pricing Intelligence Platform (TPIP).

In the coming year, we anticipate seismic shifts in the industry, driven by transformative technologies and shifting consumer behaviors. From the widespread adoption of eSIM technology to the rise of family-centric subscription models, operators will face unprecedented opportunities and challenges.


eSIM: Revolutionizing Competition

One of the most significant trends on the horizon is the proliferation of eSIM technology. First released in 2016, it was primarily used in IoT devices, but the launch of the iPhone XR in 2019 introduced eSIM to the consumer phone market. eSIM has since gained traction in consumer smartphones, unlocking new possibilities for bundles, price competition, and personalized offerings.

Apple's groundbreaking move to eSIM-only iPhones in the US (starting with the iPhone 14 and 15), along with their newly minted market dominance, surpassing Samsung for the first time last month, together signify a pivotal moment for eSIM adoption. This sets the stage for eSIM to play a transformative role in the reshaping of competition and consumer choice in 2024.

Navigating Churn and Competition

eSIM allows for instant activation and simpler enrollment, which makes switching from one operator to another easier than ever. Even before fully switching, customers may be able to download an eSIM profile with a "test drive" offer to try out a carrier's network, with the trial period defined in terms of days or data volume, or both. Churn in most developed markets is at around 10%, but eSIM could easily push this rate even higher.

Additionally, we anticipate increased competition among operators, not only centered around pricing – which remains a key factor in consumer plan selection – but also on the quality of service. Distinguishing between providers offering similar pricing structures will increasingly rely on a blend of these two factors in a price-quality ratio. As this metric will play a pivotal role in analyzing telecom competition moving forward, we have already integrated the capacity to generate this ratio within our Telecom Pricing Intelligence Platform, effectively merging network Quality of Service (QoS) data with pricing information to facilitate more comprehensive comparisons.

Unlocking Marketing Niches and Bundling Opportunities
While family plans have gained popularity in the US, offering devices for multiple users, operators are now exploring more versatile bundling options. These options allow users to add a wider array of eSIM-enabled devices like tablets, laptops, and connected car dongles to their phone plans, and enable multiple devices for one user. In a bid to attract new customers, operators are already providing price discounts on companion device plans, with a separate data allowance, when bundled with a primary smartphone.

As telecom pricing plans become less standardized and more diverse, this will introduce more complexity into the analysis of pricing and plan data. In light of increasing variability, a basket-based approach is likely to be the most realistic method for comparing offers. With Tarifica's Telecom Pricing Intelligence Platform (TPIP), we capture all the raw pricing and plan data, which enables clients to construct and adapt baskets to various scenarios, which goes beyond traditional comparisons utilized in the market, such as the OECD.

In an era of escalating competition, telecom providers are beginning to embrace the transformative potential of eSIM technology. Leveraging its capabilities for instant activation, versatile bundling options, and enhanced customer experiences, operators are poised to redefine the landscape of competition and consumer choice. Tarifica's Telecom Pricing Intelligence Platform (TPIP) empowers clients to navigate this dynamic shift, facilitating comprehensive analysis and adaptation to the evolving eSIM-driven marketplace.

Bundling Beyond Telecom

While “more-for-more” has been the dominant strategy in telecom plan development, the future of bundling extends beyond shared connectivity. In the coming year, we expect operators to focus more on streaming content and other digital subscription services which are not traditionally part of the telecom ecosystem.

It’s reasonable to say that the telecom market has reached maturity—available products are essentially interchangeable (meaning consumers are primarily basing their decision on price), and therefore the only way to continue to grow has been to bundle together ever-more services, enabling operators to continue to increase the total bill. However, there are two indicators pointing to the need for operators to begin thinking outside the box:

1. Quad-Play is Nothing New
In many European markets, all MNOs now offer the full quad-play bundles (broadband internet, television, telephone and mobile). The challenge in continuing the “more-for-more” strategy is that more services must be added to the package to justify increased prices.

2. Erosion of Core Value Propositions
The traditional quad-play bundle is showing cracks, with certain elements struggling to maintain the appeal they commanded a decade ago. While mobile lines and fixed broadband connections are considered to be as essential as ever, the other two elements, landlines and television, are seeing their value in the marketplace decline.

Digital Services Will Reshape Bundles
Many operators have already turned to developing partnerships with popular video streaming providers such as Netflix, Hulu and Disney+, and/or integrating streaming services dedicated to music, sports, or news into their packages. This trend is already well underway, driven by shifting consumer preferences toward on-demand content streaming, and creating opportunities for operators to tap into new revenue streams.

We expect the addition of streaming services to bundles to continue and accelerate further this year, with most of the largest operators having multi-app bundles available with their plans by the end of 2024. However, having made the first successful move toward applications not directly related to telecom, it would make sense for operators to look even further afield. Beyond streaming apps, we anticipate operators to explore partnerships with other services from the subscription-based internet economy, such as Uber, Instacart, or Nike Membership, further enriching their bundles with diverse offerings.

Of course, developing these new bundles will not be without its challenges. Choosing the right partnership and pricing structure is critical. Balancing discounts with consumer flexibility is crucial to incentivize bundle adoption while ensuring profitability. Despite these potential pitfalls, the evolution of telecom bundles towards comprehensive digital subscriptions represents a significant opportunity for operators to drive growth.

Family-Centric Strategies

While the concept of bundling fixed broadband access, fixed voice, mobile connection, and TV services into a single package—commonly known as double, triple, or quadruple play depending on the number of services bundled—is not new, its significance is poised to increase significantly. In 2024, the battle for market share will likely begin to focus more heavily on the family unit, with operators vying for dominance in quadruple play and multi-SIM subscriptions.

Tightening Belts, Expanding Choices

The current economic landscape, marked by rising inflation and financial strain on consumers, has led individuals and families alike to seek more and more ways to economize. In this context, the appeal of comprehensive bundled services becomes increasingly attractive as consumers aim to streamline their expenses while still enjoying a wide range of telecommunications offerings.

At the same time, telecommunications providers are grappling with the dual challenge of reducing churn rates and maintaining profitability in the face of declining Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and escalating acquisition costs. As a result, the focus on capturing entire families through bundled subscriptions has become more pronounced than ever before.

By providing comprehensive bundled offerings that encompass essential services under a single umbrella, providers can not only enhance customer retention but also drive sustainable growth in an increasingly competitive market landscape.

Value-Added Connections with Mobile

Put simply, while one fixed broadband connection typically suffices for an entire household, the same cannot be said for mobile subscriptions. In the past, one household could get by with one (or two, in the era of dial-up internet) phone lines, but today, each member of the household generally requires their own mobile line. However, by consolidating these subscriptions under a single contract, operators can present families with compelling quadruple play offers, bundling not only fixed broadband but also multiple mobile subscriptions at a discounted rate.

This approach not only offers families cost savings but also introduces additional incentives such as extra mobile data or enhanced speeds, further sweetening the deal for potential subscribers. As we look towards 2024, we anticipate a proliferation of such bundled offerings, characterized by increasing value for money and enhanced perks.

Once a Family, Always a Family
From an operator's perspective, one of the primary advantages of offering family-oriented subscription bundles is the anticipated lock-in effect they generate. By bundling services for the entire family, operators can create a scenario where if any member were to leave the subscription, the collective benefits, including added value and discounts, would be lost for all members. This dynamic significantly reduces the likelihood of churn among family members, as the loss of benefits acts as a deterrent to individual subscription cancellations.

Despite the initial costs associated with providing discounts, extra data, and speed, operators recognize the long-term value of securing subscriptions with reduced churn probabilities. The potential for sustained revenue from loyal family subscribers outweighs the upfront investment required to incentivize subscription bundling.

In a fiercely competitive market, telecom providers are increasingly recognizing the power of family-centric strategies. By catering to the diverse needs and preferences of families, offering them value, convenience, and flexibility, providers will be well-positioned to unlock a loyal customer base and drive sustainable growth.

In addition to our analysis of telecom industry trends, Tarifica hosts quarterly webinars where we delve into various telecommunications strategies, including the intricacies of family-oriented subscription bundles. These webinars serve as valuable forums for industry professionals to exchange insights and strategies, ensuring that operators remain equipped to navigate the evolving landscape of telecommunications with confidence and foresight.

5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA)

Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) finds itself at the center of a heated debate in the telecom industry. As the technology evolves, key questions remain: Is it a competitor or a collaborator to fiber networks? Can it truly bridge the digital divide in remote and underserved areas where laying fiber is impractical? Will public support and funding materialize to support its wider adoption?

The debate surrounding 5G FWA will undoubtedly intensify in 2024. However, amidst these debates, one crucial aspect often overlooked is the cost for consumers and the value that cost offers.

More FWA On The Way
Tarifica’s Telecom Pricing Intelligence Platform (TPIP) meticulously monitors Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) as part of its comprehensive coverage of fixed broadband plans and pricing. Over the course of 2023, our data showed a notable trend: the average price of FWA has predominantly decreased across the countries we track. However, in instances where prices have risen, the primary catalyst often appeared to be the new introduction of 5G FWA into those markets.

While it’s understandable that 5G FWA commands a higher price compared to its 4G counterparts, mirroring the pattern seen in standard consumer plans, we anticipate a gradual transition towards 5G FWA adoption. This transition, coupled with heightened competition, is expected to drive an overall trend of price decreases in the FWA market.

Fiber vs FWA: The Value Equation
While 5G FWA promises faster speeds, the question of cost-effectiveness lingers (and is often overlooked). Our data indicates that, when comparing 5G FWA to fiber connections based on monthly costs against maximum download speeds, fiber generally offers better value, particularly for speeds exceeding 1Gbps. In other words, for the same price, fiber typically delivers faster download speeds compared to FWA. Additionally, factors such as FWA’s slower upload speed and potential data caps should be considered.

Nonetheless, FWA boasts a significant advantage in its extensive coverage, utilizing the mobile network without requiring physical installation up to the household. Thus, FWA can provide a viable broadband connection option, especially in areas where fiber infrastructure is unavailable. Given these considerations, we anticipate a rise in FWA and 5G FWA subscriptions throughout 2024, particularly in rural regions lacking fiber alternatives. This growth is expected to be bolstered by public initiatives aimed at expanding broadband access across diverse populations.

The debate over Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) continues to rage on. Our analysis unveils where fiber holds the edge in value, particularly for high-speed users. However, FWA’s extensive reach presents a significant opportunity for operators to bridge the digital divide and expand their subscriber base, especially in rural areas without fiber infrastructure.


 
Conclusion

Our forecast for the telecom industry in 2024 reflects a landscape marked by rapid evolution and transformative technologies. From the widespread adoption of eSIM technology to the emergence of comprehensive digital subscription bundles, there are unprecedented opportunities and challenges for operators to navigate. As the industry shifts towards family-centric strategies, streamlined bundled offerings, and enhanced connectivity options, telecom providers must adapt to meet evolving consumer demands while maintaining profitability in a fiercely competitive market.

At Tarifica, we remain at the forefront of industry insights and trends, leveraging our Telecom Pricing Intelligence Platform (TPIP) to provide comprehensive data-driven analysis and strategic guidance to operators worldwide. With TPIP's unparalleled coverage and advanced capabilities, operators can navigate the complexities of the telecom landscape with confidence, unlocking new opportunities for growth and innovation in this dynamic telecom ecosystem.


About the Authors:

Soichi Nakajima: VP Data and Analysis - snakajima@tarifica.com
With over 20 years of telecommunication market analysis experience, Soichi oversees the data collection, quality, research, analysis, and production of all data projects and quantitative studies.


Will Watts: VP of Product - wwatts@tarifica.com
Will is responsible for the planning, build-out, and maintenance of Tarifica's data solutions, including the flagship Digital Intelligence Platforms. In his more than 10 years at Tarifica, he has successfully delivered custom projects and market analyses to clients such as GSMA, the World Bank, BEREC, Verizon, and Telefonica.


Vincent Bonneau: International Business Development - vbonneau@tarifica.com
With over 20 years of consulting experience in the telecom industry, Vincent leads business development for data collection studies and analytics platform development at Tarifica, working closely with regulators and operators to provide them with adequate pricing data for telecom plans and devices.



Tarifica's Telecom Pricing Intelligence Platform
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For more information, a personalized demo, or a free trial account lasting one month, reach out to us at info@tarifica.com. Start making data-driven decisions with Tarifica today.

Monday, July 10, 2023

A Hint of the Green Future in Denmark


Telenor Denmark has announced the expansion of its "Mobilbyt" trade-in partnership with GreenMind, a company specializing in the refurbishment and sale of used electronics. The collaboration enables customers to combine a Telenor subscription with a discount on a newly reconditioned phone. The objective of the partnership is to promote a more sustainable approach to mobile device consumption.

According to a study commissioned by Telenor in April 2023, 54% of Danes have replaced their mobile phones within the past two years. The partnership with GreenMind aims to address the low recycling rates for consumer electronics, as less than one fifth of these devices are currently recycled. Electronic waste is recognized as the fastest-growing waste stream globally by the United Nations, but, as Tina Hogsted Svanberg, CEO of GreenMind has pointed out, choosing a used smartphone over a new one can save an average of 60 kg of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Under this initiative, shoppers will receive a discount on a recycled phone at any of GreenMind's thirteen Danish branches when they also purchase a Telenor mobile subscription. GreenMind’s recycling process ensures that the content of handsets is wiped before refurbishment and offers buyers a three-year warranty on their purchases.

The Telenor Denmark and GreenMind partnership is a byproduct of the continued trend that smartphones are lasting longer and the reduced differentiation between upgrade cycles. Older smartphones are holding more value and are more usable than ever. Globally, operators are providing more options for trade-in deals and there is increasing demand for used devices.

Beyond reinforcing this trend, the partnership is noteworthy for two reasons. First, it allows Telenor to position itself as an environmentally-friendly provider that offers customers incentives to purchase recycled devices. This approach allows the company to continue to accommodate customers who prefer new devices while also appealing to what may be a growing number of customers interested in sustainable alternatives. Even if only a relatively small number of Telenor users purchase recycled devices, the partnership enables the operator to highlight its work in its ads and branding.

Second, if the partnership is successful, it would signify a noteworthy shift in at least a portion of the mobile phone market. While there a secondary market for phones exists in developed economies, these have primarily been sold through more informal channels (e.g., resellers, auctions, and person-to-person). Traditionally, though, secondhand phones have traditionally been aimed at emerging markets. As Telenor is a major provider operating in a developed market, a thriving partnership with GreenMind going forward could indicate a growing acceptance of used phones even among less budget-conscious consumers. Overall, the outcomes of the program will provide insights into evolving consumer preferences and the demand for sustainable options in the mobile industry.


Tarifica is a global SaaS company and a market leader in the real-time collection, analysis and delivery of telecom plan and pricing data worldwide. Through a mix of AI, modeling and market expertise, Tarifica tracks hundreds of thousands of plan and pricing data points daily. No other company tracks more. Tarifica's mission is to continuously convert data into the dynamic intelligence that fuels opportunities for its clients, the world's leading operators, regulators and consultants.

Learn more about Tarifica at www.tarifica.com 

Friday, July 7, 2023

Tackling Both Sides of the Equation in Slovakia




Orange Slovakia has introduced new mobile plans named Plus. This brand includes a range of mobile plans which all include a fixed volume of minutes and mobile data and unlimited SMS/MMS each month.

These postpaid packages come with two sets of added incentives designed to win new customers and keep them on the Orange network long-term. First, Orange is running a promotion that includes up to four months of free service for customers who switch their number to the operator and choose one of these new plans. Second, these offers include extra bonus data for each year the customer remains with Orange.

The launch of Orange Slovakia's Plus bundles showcases a strategic approach that combines attracting new customers and rewarding loyalty. By including enticing incentives such as free data for each year of customer tenure, Orange aims to not only entice new subscribers but also encourage long-term relationships.

The dual pronged approach which simultaneously combines promotions focused on both acquiring and retaining customers is uncommon. Yet this promotion strategy suggests the increasing competitiveness of the Slovakian market, as operators strive to capture and retain a loyal customer base.


Tarifica is a global SaaS company and a market leader in the real-time collection, analysis and delivery of telecom plan and pricing data worldwide. Through a mix of AI, modeling and market expertise, Tarifica tracks hundreds of thousands of plan and pricing data points daily. No other company tracks more. Tarifica's mission is to continuously convert data into the dynamic intelligence that fuels opportunities for its clients, the world's leading operators, regulators and consultants.

Learn more about Tarifica at www.tarifica.com 

Wednesday, May 24, 2023

Unleashing Logic in the Netherlands

Lebara, an MVNO in the Netherlands, recently launched a new marketing campaign that highlights the drawbacks of unlimited data plans. With a focus on limited data options and the potential cost savings, Lebara aims to capture the attention of a broader audience. With discounts on two-year contracts and postpaid data options ranging from 1 to 20 GB per month, Lebara is positioning itself as the “logical” choice for those who only want to pay for what they truly need, standing out amidst the industry's push for unlimited offerings.

Lebara's decision to diverge from the industry trend of promoting unlimited data plans reflects a clever execution of the asymmetrical marketing strategy often employed by insurgent players like MVNOs. Challenging the narrative that unlimited is always better, the campaign redefines the perspective on unlimited plans as one of overpaying for unused data, which allows the MVNO to differentiate itself and position its limited data postpaid plans as the smart and logical choice. In the process, Lebara is attempting to identify itself as a customer-friendly alternative dedicated to meeting its customers’ actual data needs, rather than another operator which is promoting higher priced unlimited plans. 

Tarifica is a global SaaS company and a market leader in the real-time collection, analysis and delivery of telecom plan and pricing data worldwide. Through a mix of AI, modeling and market expertise, Tarifica tracks hundreds of thousands of plan and pricing data points daily. No other company tracks more. Tarifica's mission is to continuously convert data into the dynamic intelligence that fuels opportunities for its clients, the world's leading operators, regulators and consultants.

Learn more about Tarifica at www.tarifica.com 

Saturday, May 20, 2023

Unlimited Data and Cost Control in Croatia



Croatia's leading telecom provider, Hrvatski Telekom, has relaunched its eSimpa prepaid offer. Customers who sign up by the end of June receive three free days of unlimited internet per month for the next 12 months. Beyond the promotional period, three days of unlimited internet can be accessed for EUR 3.49 (US $3.79).

Additionally, customers can choose from various prepaid bundles, including the eSimpa XS option, which offers 2,000 minutes, SMS, and 5 GB of data for EUR 9.99 (US $10.86). All eSimpa plans allow for unused credit to carry over to the next month.

The relaunch of eSimpa showcases Hrvatski Telekom's commitment to addressing customer pain points and providing a flexible and transparent prepaid solution by introducing a customer-centric approach to data usage and cost control.

One of the standout features of the relaunched eSimpa plan is the ability for customers to have full control over their costs. This revamped prepaid plan distinguishes itself as the only prepaid option that does not automatically renew. When there is no active bundle or credit, data traffic is automatically blocked, ensuring no unexpected charges. Moreover, an SOS option is available as a stopgap measure when needed, providing 2 GB of traffic for 24 hours at a cost of EUR 0.13 (US $0.14).

Overall, the eSimpa relaunch provides an enticing proposition for customers seeking both freedom and financial control in their mobile experience. Hrvatski Telekom’s dedication to meeting the evolving needs of customers, especially in the current economic climate, is evident. With its customer-centric approach to data usage and cost control, eSimpa is poised to provide an optimal prepaid solution in the Croation telecom market.


Tarifica is a global SaaS company and a market leader in the real-time collection, analysis and delivery of telecom plan and pricing data worldwide. Through a mix of AI, modeling and market expertise, Tarifica tracks hundreds of thousands of plan and pricing data points daily. No other company tracks more. Tarifica's mission is to continuously convert data into the dynamic intelligence that fuels opportunities for its clients, the world's leading operators, regulators and consultants.

Learn more about Tarifica at www.tarifica.com 

Wednesday, May 17, 2023

Canadian Market Poised For MVNO Network Access

Canadian telecom customers could soon see more operator choices as the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC) approved the final terms for MVNO network access. Under the new framework, the country's large mobile operators must open up their networks to virtual operators and negotiate access agreements within 90 days.

This latest decision builds on the CRTC's move in 2021 to make wholesale network access mandatory for the MNOs as a way to promote competition and reduce retail prices. Bell, Telus, Rogers, and Sasktel must have their networks ready within 30 days for the wholesale services and provide seamless hand-off to the new service providers within 90 days. If they cannot reach commercial agreements with the newcomers within the 90-day period, the CRTC may intervene and arbitrate a deal.

The Canadian mobile and fixed prices have been some of the most expensive in the world. With this move, the CRTC hopes to bring down prices by increasing competition in the marketplace.

However, there is cause to be skeptical about the impact of this new rule on the market, as there are a number of challenges Canadian providers encounter that are distinct from most of their global peers. While the major Canadian cities have dense clusters, beyond these areas, operators face a vast landmass to cover and a limited population over which to spread the cost. To provide a sense of scale, Canada has roughly the same population as Poland, but more than 30 times the land area. Building out and maintaining networks that cover a country with those characteristics will almost inevitably result in high costs for consumers. Further, even if this increased competition is successful in driving down prices, it is also important to note that this move could negatively impact long-term investment in network infrastructure, which would be particularly damaging to the country’s scattered rural communities.

The impact of this move on Canadian mobile prices remains to be seen, and as these companies navigate the new rules and negotiate with virtual operators, it is worth keeping an eye on the situation.

Tarifica is a global SaaS company and a market leader in the real-time collection, analysis and delivery of telecom plan and pricing data worldwide. Through a mix of AI, modeling and market expertise, Tarifica tracks hundreds of thousands of plan and pricing data points daily. No other company tracks more. Tarifica's mission is to continuously convert data into the dynamic intelligence that fuels opportunities for its clients, the world's leading operators, regulators and consultants.

Learn more about Tarifica at www.tarifica.com 

Friday, May 12, 2023

European Telcos Two-Step to Beat Roaming Woes



Thirty-eight telecom operators from the EU and Western Balkan region have agreed to the specific price caps for the data roaming services between their countries. The maximum price for 1 GB of roaming data will be EUR 18.00 (US $19.73) starting in October 2023, dropped to EUR 14.00 (US $15.35) in 2026, and then finally dropping again to EUR 9.00 (US $9.87) in 2028.

This agreement follows the operators’ signing of a declaration in December 2022 to reduce mobile roaming prices for users traveling between the EU and the countries of the Western Balkan region. The stated goal is to encourage business, tourism and other exchanges between the EU and the Western Balkans.

On first viewing, it might not be clear why these telcos would voluntarily and collectively commit to reducing their own prices and fees for roaming. These represent a meaningful revenue stream for mobile carriers and one where there is far less competition than on the core plans.

Closer examination reveals that this change is likely not an independent business decision by these operators to maximize short-term revenue, and is instead an attempt to preempt future regulatory interventions. When the “roam like at home” ruling was implemented across the EU in 2017, European mobile operators lost out on a significant incremental revenue stream. Mobile carriers are loath to see this situation replicated with travel to and from the Western Balkans.

Given the amount of travel and tourism between the Western Balkans and the rest of Europe, and the fact that roaming fees are now rarely a part of the lives of consumers for travel elsewhere in the continent, it is likely that regulators would face some calls to extend these fee protections to these countries as well. The risk of regulatory action is further heightened by the fact that the countries of the Western Balkans are actively working to streamline relations with the EU. As the groups increasingly collaborate, it is easy to envision price caps or the elimination of roaming fees being an early action.

These announced price caps potentially preempt such scenarios. By lessening consumer frustration and demonstrating an ability to “regulate themselves,” mobile carriers in both the Western Balkans and the EU may be able to secure roaming fees as a continuing, if slightly lessened, revenue stream. 


Tarifica is a global SaaS company and a market leader in the real-time collection, analysis and delivery of telecom plan and pricing data worldwide. Through a mix of AI, modeling and market expertise, Tarifica tracks hundreds of thousands of plan and pricing data points daily. No other company tracks more. Tarifica's mission is to continuously convert data into the dynamic intelligence that fuels opportunities for its clients, the world's leading operators, regulators and consultants.

Learn more about Tarifica at www.tarifica.com